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In the description of a soil deposit and a contaminant source (eg. a landfill) the values of all the input data are not always known with certainty. For example, the length of time that the primary leachate collection system will function before becoming clogged [Rowe and Fraser, 1993a, 1993b]. However, if the probability distribution can be estimated for the variable then Monte Carlo simulation can be used to predict the expected contaminant concentrations.
This feature supports the use of Monte Carlo simulation, to evaluate the effects of uncertainty in the values of some of the input data. The input data are described using probability distributions, from which data values are randomly chosen for each simulation pass. Numerous simulations are performed, and the results describe the probability distribution of the function being simulated, in this program the probability distribution is that of the peak concentration at various depths. Once the distributions of peak concentrations are determined, the user can make statistical predictions of the peak concentration; such as, the probability of the peak concentration exceeding a specific value.
To use this feature select the Monte Carlo Simulation menu item from the Special Features menu. The Monte Carlo Simulation form will be displayed. This form has two tabs, one for the general data and one for the variable data.